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Browsing by Author "Barrette, Paul"

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    Frazil ice events: Assessing what to expect in the future
    (IWA Publishing, 2023) Barrette, Paul; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich
    This article addresses the question: What is expected from frazil ice activity in rivers, taking into account the changing climate? It begins with an overview of what frazil ice is and what is required for the occurrence of frazil ice events, namely a supercooled water column. Methodologies to anticipate frazil ice events in the short term are based on air temperature and water discharge, underlining the significance of these two parameters for any predictive methods. Longer-term approaches, calibrated against past events (hindcasting), are used to anticipate frazil ice activity into the future, with indicators such as frazil ice risk, water temperature and frazil volume. Any of these approaches could conceivably be applied to frazil-prone river stretches. To assess climate impact, each location should be treated separately. River ice dynamics can lead to the formation of a hanging dam, a frequent outcome of frazil ice generation in the early winter, causing flow restriction. Flood modeling and forecasting capabilities have been developed and implemented for operational use. More frequent mid-winter breakups are expected to extend the occurrence of frazil ice events into the winter months – the prediction of these will require climate model output to adequately capture month-to-month variability.
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    Integrated Hydrological and Hydraulic Modeling for River Freezing Simulation: Impacts of a Changing Climate on the Freeze-Up of the Exploits River in Newfoundland
    (Springer Nature, 2024-10-12) Ghoreishi, Mohammad; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich; Barrette, Paul; Khan, Amir Ali
    Frazil ice, a major component of winter river dynamics, poses hazards through ice jam formation, particularly in regions like Newfoundland, Canada. This study employs an integrated hydrological and river ice hydraulic modeling approach to predict future freeze-up ice jamming events in the Exploits River under climate change scenarios. Focusing on the naturally flowing lower subbasin, the study simulates streamflow and frazil ice generation by integrating HEC-HMS and RIVICE models. Climate scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 6 are incorporated using the delta change method. This study aims to evaluate the generation and accumulation of frazil ice and predict future trends in freeze-up ice jamming events. Our study reveals significant insights into the future dynamics of ice cover extents along the Exploits River, particularly in relation to the town of Badger. Notably, our findings indicate a trend toward shorter ice cover durations and later arrivals of the ice cover front at Badger, potentially mitigating flood risk, particularly during milder winter seasons. Moreover, in some scenarios, the projected ice cover may not even reach Badger during these milder winters, further reducing the town’s vulnerability to flooding events. This research is crucial for ensuring infrastructure resilience and community safety in regions where frazil ice dynamics play a critical role in riverine hazards.