The price impact of increased protein demand and enhanced protein peas (EPP)

Abstract

Over the last decade, consumers have become increasingly concerned about the health risks and the environmental impacts of the food products they buy and have increased their preference for plant-based protein. This increase in the demand for plant-based protein has created great investment opportunities for the pulse industry in Canada especially Saskatchewan, being the highest producer of peas in Canada. The P-POD project anticipates to introduce an enhanced yellow pea with protein content of about 26% by 2024. The objective of this study is to quantify the price and economic effects of this enhanced protein pea under several growth scenarios, with the goal of identifying the best strategies for capturing Canadian value from the enhanced peas. We develop a partial equilibrium simulation model that is parameterized to reflect the current industry structure, the introduction of EPP varieties, and future demand growth for 20 years (2020 to 2040). Our results show that the premium on EPP is largely influenced by the protein isolate growth faced by the industry, the higher the isolate demand growth, the larger the premium on EPP and the faster the occurrence of a drastic innovation. Even though with the anticipated growth in pea protein and pea protein isolate, the a priori expectation was that this innovation will increase farm income and benefit pea producers, our results show otherwise. We find that if EPP varieties are agronomically equal to RPP varieties and have the same royalty structure, both peas will trade at the same price for many years with large benefits accruing to pea processors and pea protein consumers and very little or negative short-run benefits for pea producers. Given the limited gains for producers who have typically funded pea breeding, alternative royalty models may be required to fund the needed investment in breeding.