"LOAD MODIFICATION" -- A NEW METHOD TO CALCULATE GENERATING CAPACITY RELIABILITY INDICES

Abstract

This thesis introduces a unified probability method to evaluate generating capacity reliability and energy production cost of a power system. This method is essentially a process of modifying a given load duration curve with a generating capacity distribution to give an equivalent load duration curve. This technique is called the 'Load Modification Approach'. This new method can be used to generate three reliability indices, namely, Loss of Load Expection, Energy Index of Reliability and Shortage Capacity Probability Distribution. This thesis shows that it is a combination of the existing Loss of Load and Loss of Energy approaches with additional benefits. The technique presented has the unique ability of maintaining the identity of each unit in the calculation precess. This makes it possible to incorporate the limited energy characteristics of hydro stations and the pumping-generating cycles of pumped-storage stations into the analysis. By extending the technique, the method is also shown to be very effective when dealing with load forecast uncertainty and interconnected system situations. This thesis describes and illustrates the application of the Load Modification Method and presents it as an unified approach for reliability evaluation and production cost modelling.