Examining the relationship of risk, treatment readiness, and therapeutic change to recidivism in a sample of treated sex offenders

Abstract

The present study examined the interrelationship of risk for recidivism, treatment readiness and responsivity, treatment-related change, treatment attrition, and recidivism among sexual offenders. It provided a cross validation of selected risk assessment measures, including the Static-99R, STABLE 2007, and Violence Risk Scale – Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO), as well as a clinical rating scale, the Treatment Readiness, Responsivity, and Gain Scale: Short Version (TRRG:SV). The primary focus of the study was to evaluate the relationship between treatment-related change and recidivism. The study was archival and participants included 185 federally incarcerated adult male sex offenders who participated in the Clearwater Sex Offender Treatment Program at the Regional Psychiatric Centre (Saskatoon, SK) between 1997 and 2001 and were followed up for an average of 9.3 years (SD = 3.0) post-release. Twenty percent of the sample was convicted for a new sexual offense, 45% for any new violent (including sexual) conviction, and 61% for any new conviction. The Static-99R, STABLE 2007, and VRS-SO all predicted violent recidivism (AUC = .62 to .72), as did the TRRG:SV (AUC = .32 to .37). Moreover, the dynamic risk measures demonstrated significant incremental validity, controlling for the Static-99R, in the prediction of sexual and violent recidivism. Treated participants made significant pre- to post-treatment changes on the VRS-SO, STABLE 2007, and TRRG:SV. Changes on the VRS-SO were significantly associated with lower rates of violent recidivism, with and without controlling for pre-treatment risk. Changes on the TRRG:SV were significantly associated with lower rates of sexual and violent recidivism. Significant predictors of treatment attrition were identified in the domains of criminal history, pre-treatment risk, treatment readiness and responsivity issues, and institutional adjustment. Implications for offender assessment, management, and rehabilitation are discussed.