Decision Trees for Dynamic Decision Making And System Dynamics Modelling Calibration and Expansion

Abstract

Many practical problems raise the challenge of making decisions over time in the presence of both dynamic complexity and pronounced uncertainty regarding evolution of important factors that affect the dynamics of the system. In this thesis, we provide an end-to-end implementation of an easy-to-use system to confront such challenges. This system gives policy makers a new approach to take complementary advantage of decision analysis techniques and System Dynamics by allowing easy creation, evaluation, and interactive exploration of hybrid models. As an important application of this methodology, we extended a System Dynamic model within the context of West Nile virus transmission in Saskatchewan.