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dc.contributor.advisorBillinton, Royen_US
dc.creatorVega Hernandez, Nahun Bulmaroen_US
dc.date.accessioned2009-04-01T18:10:08Zen_US
dc.date.accessioned2013-01-04T04:27:59Z
dc.date.available2010-04-13T08:00:00Zen_US
dc.date.available2013-01-04T04:27:59Z
dc.date.created2009en_US
dc.date.issued2009en_US
dc.date.submitted2009en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10388/etd-04012009-181008en_US
dc.description.abstractThe basic objective in bulk electrical system planning is to determine the necessary generating facilities required to ensure an adequate and economic supply of electrical energy and the development of an adequate transmission network to transport the generated energy to the customers. Quantitative adequacy assessment is a basic task in achieving this objective. An important requirement in this task is the ability to forecast the system load requirements at specific times in the future. These forecasts must also recognize the inherent uncertainty in predicting the future load demands. The primary focus of the research described in this thesis is to examine the effects and implications of load forecast uncertainty on the load point and system adequacy indices of a composite generation and transmission system. This thesis considers two techniques to incorporate the inherent uncertainty associated with future load forecasts in the adequacy assessment of bulk electrical systems. Base case and factor analyses are performed on a number of power system configurations to identify and address the relative contributions to the load point and system indices due to load forecast uncertainty. A transmission reinforcement option and a number of generation system expansion options are presented to examine the system reliability response due to load forecast uncertainty. The actual magnitudes of the changes due to load forecast uncertainty in the load bus and system risk indices and in the percentage change values are different for each generation expansion scenario. The topology and parameters of the system are different in each of the studied power system configurations. The effect of load forecast uncertainty on the system and load point adequacy can be quantified and utilized in the decision-making process associated with system generation and transmission planning. Load forecast uncertainty has important impacts on the system and load point indices that can only be appreciated by conducting comprehensive bulk system adequacy assessment. The actual effects are a complicated function of the system topology and parameters, and the system load curtailment philosophy.en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.subjectload bus priority orderen_US
dc.subjectuncertainty of future system requirementsen_US
dc.subjectmethods to forecast energy demanden_US
dc.subjectsystem development and reinforcement planningen_US
dc.subjectrecognition of load uncertaintyen_US
dc.titleLoad forecast uncertainty considerations in bulk electrical system adequacy assessmenten_US
thesis.degree.departmentElectrical Engineeringen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineElectrical Engineeringen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Saskatchewanen_US
thesis.degree.levelMastersen_US
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Science (M.Sc.)en_US
dc.type.materialtexten_US
dc.type.genreThesisen_US
dc.contributor.committeeMemberKarki, Rajeshen_US
dc.contributor.committeeMemberGokaraju, Ramakrishnaen_US
dc.contributor.committeeMemberBurton, Richard T.en_US
dc.contributor.committeeMemberTakaya, Kunioen_US


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