Cost of EU opposition to genetically modified wheat in terms of global food security

Abstract

Crop Biotechnology could help achieve a more food-secure world. However, the strong opposition to GM food, particularly in Europe, will undoubtedly affect the diffusion of GM crops worldwide, delaying or preventing the world from realizing the potential benefits of GM crops in terms of food security. This “braking effect” could deprive the world of a potential tool to increase or stabilize the future worldwide availability of food under a changing or more volatile climate. It is therefore essential to understand how the opposition to GM food has and will affect the diffusion of biotechnological innovations worldwide in order to estimate the effect of this opposition on global food security. The main objective of the thesis is to estimate the loss in global food security if the EU does not relax their opposition to GM food. To meet this objective a market model is combined with a GM diffusion model to create a global food security (GFS) model. The focus of the model is GM wheat, due to the vital importance of conventional wheat to global food security. This approach allows us to evaluate dynamic economic responses to food production shocks, such as climate change. The GFS model is calibrated using production, consumption and price data for wheat. A number of scenarios are analyzed to consider the range of potential effects of the EU opposition on global food security. The results of the analyses will better inform the ongoing GM policy debates, which often ignore food security impacts.