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      Family physician work force projections in Saskatchewan

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      KitLingLam_Thesis.pdf (359.5Kb)
      Date
      2008
      Author
      Lam, Kit Ling (Doris)
      Type
      Thesis
      Degree Level
      Masters
      Metadata
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      Abstract
      This thesis applies the econometric projection approach to forecast the numbers of general practitioners (GPs) in Saskatchewan for the next 15 years at both provincial and the Regional Health Authorities (RHAs) levels. The projection results will provide the estimated level of GPs up to 2021 for policy makers to adjust their decision on health professionals’ planning. Three hypothesized scenarios, which include the changes in population proportion, average income for GPs and a combination of both, are used for projections based on the regression results. The projections suggest a 4.34% expected annual increase of GPs if the proportions of children and seniors increase or decrease according to prediction for the next 15 years for Saskatchewan. At the RHAs level, 4.5% to 10.7% expected annual rate of increase for numbers of GPs is projected for the northern RHAs and Saskatoon RHA, while the expected increase for other urban RHAs will experience less than 1.5% increases. The predicted changes in average income for GPs show insignificant effect for the expected changes in numbers of GPs. However, the second and third scenarios are not extended to the RHAs level due to lack of information, which requires additional data for both Saskatchewan physicians and population for further projection analysis.
      Degree
      Master of Arts (M.A.)
      Department
      Economics
      Program
      Economics
      Supervisor
      Sari, Nazmi
      Committee
      Huq, M. Mobinul; Dobson, Roy T.; Chaban, Maxym
      Copyright Date
      2008
      URI
      http://hdl.handle.net/10388/etd-11252008-231945
      Subject
      scenario
      regional health authority
      Saskatchewan
      estimate
      forecast
      policy planning
      Econometrics
      Family Physician
      General Practitioner
      health
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      • Graduate Theses and Dissertations
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