UNCERTAINTY ASPECTS IN GENERATING CAPACITY RELIABILITY EVALUATION
Date
1978-09
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
ORCID
Type
Degree Level
Masters
Abstract
Probability methods are widely used in generation planning of power systems. In recent years, special interest has been devoted to the effect of uncertainties in the system parameters on the generation reliability indices. This thesis presents some basic extensions to the techniques used for studying the effect of uncertainties in the system parameters on the Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) index of single area systems. Sensitivity of the LOLE index to the generator forced outage rate and load forecasting is illustrated using data provided by the Saskatchewan Power Corporation (SPC). Approximate confidence intervals for the LOLE index when it is treated as a random variable are obtained using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The development of a method by which the effect of derated units in LOLE analysis can be included is presented. Computational results have demonstrated that both the exact and approximate methods give very good agreement in the calculated values of the parameters involved. In addition, the approximate methods presented save computer time and storage.
Description
Keywords
Citation
Degree
Master of Science (M.Sc.)
Department
Electrical Engineering