Electricity market clearing price forecasting under a deregulated electricity market
Date
2009-10
Authors
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Journal ISSN
Volume Title
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Type
Degree Level
Masters
Abstract
Under deregulated electric market, electricity price is no longer set by the monopoly utility company rather it responds to the market and operating conditions. Offering the right amount of electricity at the right time with the right bidding price has become the key for utility companies pursuing maximum profits under deregulated electricity market. Therefore, electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting became essential for decision making, scheduling and bidding strategy planning purposes. However, forecasting electricity MCP is a very difficult problem due to uncertainties associated with input variables.
Neural network based approach promises to be an effective forecasting tool in an environment with high degree of non-linearity and uncertainty. Although there are several techniques
available for short-term MCP forecasting, very little has been done to do mid-term MCP forecasting. Two new artificial neural networks have been proposed and reported in this thesis
that can be utilized to forecast mid-term daily peak and mid-term hourly electricity MCP. The proposed neural networks can simulate the electricity MCP with electricity hourly demand,
electricity daily peak demand, natural gas price and precipitation as input variables. Two situations have been considered; electricity MCP forecasting under real deregulated electric
market and electricity MCP forecasting under deregulated electric market with perfect competition. The PJM interconnect system has been utilized for numerical results. Techniques
have been developed to overcome difficulties in training the neural network and improve the training results.
Description
Keywords
Electricity Market Clearing Price Forecasting, Neural network, Mid-term MCP forecasting, Deregulated electricity market, Competitive market
Citation
Degree
Master of Science (M.Sc.)
Department
Electrical Engineering
Program
Electrical Engineering