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Electricity market clearing price forecasting under a deregulated electricity market

dc.contributor.advisorChowdhury, Nurul A.en_US
dc.contributor.committeeMemberChen, L.en_US
dc.contributor.committeeMemberFaired, S. O.en_US
dc.contributor.committeeMemberBoulfiza, M.en_US
dc.creatorYan, Xingen_US 2009en_US
dc.description.abstractUnder deregulated electric market, electricity price is no longer set by the monopoly utility company rather it responds to the market and operating conditions. Offering the right amount of electricity at the right time with the right bidding price has become the key for utility companies pursuing maximum profits under deregulated electricity market. Therefore, electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting became essential for decision making, scheduling and bidding strategy planning purposes. However, forecasting electricity MCP is a very difficult problem due to uncertainties associated with input variables. Neural network based approach promises to be an effective forecasting tool in an environment with high degree of non-linearity and uncertainty. Although there are several techniques available for short-term MCP forecasting, very little has been done to do mid-term MCP forecasting. Two new artificial neural networks have been proposed and reported in this thesis that can be utilized to forecast mid-term daily peak and mid-term hourly electricity MCP. The proposed neural networks can simulate the electricity MCP with electricity hourly demand, electricity daily peak demand, natural gas price and precipitation as input variables. Two situations have been considered; electricity MCP forecasting under real deregulated electric market and electricity MCP forecasting under deregulated electric market with perfect competition. The PJM interconnect system has been utilized for numerical results. Techniques have been developed to overcome difficulties in training the neural network and improve the training results.en_US
dc.subjectElectricity Market Clearing Price Forecastingen_US
dc.subjectNeural networken_US
dc.subjectMid-term MCP forecastingen_US
dc.subjectDeregulated electricity marketen_US
dc.subjectCompetitive marketen_US
dc.titleElectricity market clearing price forecasting under a deregulated electricity marketen_US
dc.type.materialtexten_US Engineeringen_US Engineeringen_US of Saskatchewanen_US of Science (M.Sc.)en_US


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