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Climate Driven Trends in Historical Extreme LowStreamflows on Four Continents

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dc.contributor.authorHodgkins, Glenn
dc.contributor.authorRenard, Benjamin
dc.contributor.authorWhitfield, Paul
dc.contributor.authorLaaha, Gregor
dc.contributor.authorStahl, Kerstin
dc.contributor.authorHannaford, Jamie
dc.contributor.authorBurn, Donald
dc.contributor.authorWestra, Seth
dc.contributor.authorFleig, Anne
dc.contributor.authorLopes, Walszon Terllizzie Araújo
dc.contributor.authorMurphy, Conor
dc.contributor.authorMediero, Luis
dc.contributor.authorHanel, Martin
dc.date.accessioned2025-01-19T12:22:50Z
dc.date.available2025-01-19T12:22:50Z
dc.date.issued2024-06-17
dc.description© 2024 The Authors. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding temporal trends in low streamflows is important for water management and ecosystems. This work focuses on trends in the occurrence rate of extreme low-flow events (5- to 100-year return periods) for pooled groups of stations. We use data from 1,184 minimally altered catchments in Europe, North and South America, and Australia to discern historical climate-driven trends in extreme low flows (1976–2015 and 1946–2015). The understanding of low streamflows is complicated by different hydrological regimes in cold, transitional, and warm regions. We use a novel classification to define low-flow regimes using air temperature and monthly low-flow frequency. Trends in the annual occurrence rate of extreme low-flow events (proportion of pooled stations each year) were assessed for each regime. Most regimes on multiple continents did not have significant (p < 0.05) trends in the occurrence rate of extreme low streamflows from 1976 to 2015; however, occurrence rates for the cold-season low-flow regime in North America were found to be significantly decreasing for low return-period events. In contrast, there were statistically significant increases for this period in warm regions of NA which were associated with the variation in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Significant decreases in extreme low-flow occurrence rates were dominant from 1946 to 2015 in Europe and NA for both cold- and warm-season low-flow regimes; there were also some non-significant trends. The difference in the results between the shorter (40-year) and longer (70-year) records and between low-flow regimes highlights the complexities of low-flow response to changing climatic conditions.
dc.description.sponsorshipJ. Hannaford was supported by the ROBIN (Reference Observatory of Basins for International hydrological climate change detection) initiative, with funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (grant number NE/W004038/1). B. Renard has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie‐Sklodowska‐Curie grant agreement No 835496. G. Laaha received funding from the Austrian Climate Research Program ACRP under the project DIRT (GZ C265154).
dc.description.versionPeer Reviewed
dc.identifier.citationHodgkins, G. A., Renard, B., Whitfield, P.H., Laaha, G., Stahl, K., Hannaford, J.,et al. (2024). Climate driven trends inhistorical extreme low streamflows on fourcontinents. Water Resources Research, 60,e2022WR034326. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR034326
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2022WR034326
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10388/16480
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWiley, American Geophysical Union
dc.rightsAttribution 2.5 Canadaen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ca/
dc.subjectextreme low-flow events
dc.subjectpooling stations
dc.subjectwater management
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.titleClimate Driven Trends in Historical Extreme LowStreamflows on Four Continents
dc.typeArticle

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