Assessing and Reconstructing Community-Scale Weather Variability at Okanese First Nation
Date
2024-03-26
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
ORCID
Type
Thesis
Degree Level
Masters
Abstract
Time series analysis of weather elements (ie, air temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, pressure, and rainfall) are used as indicators of Earth’s changing climate. However, the variability amongst these elements are often underrepresented at a community scale. The purpose of this study was to reconstruct an air temperature record at Okanese First Nation, Saskatchewan, Canada. To achieve this purpose, three objectives were identified. The first objective was to visualize and assess the spatial variation of weather elements in Okanese First Nation. The second objective was to determine which spatial interpolation technique performed best at estimating air temperature with the community-scale established. The final objective was to quantify a baseline historic air temperature record at Okanese First Nation. An analysis of weather data from four meteorological stations within the community was used to determine how the weather elements varied in time and space. With this analysis it was possible to determine the total number of stations that were warranted within the community. Knowing how the weather elements were behaving in the community allowed for the start of the second objective. Three different spatial interpolation techniques were tested – inverse distance weighting, ordinary kriging, and universal kriging - to determine which estimated air temperature best within the community. Model values were computed for each technique and directly compared to observed values from the stations established within Okanese First Nation. Through testing, it was determined that IDW was the most suitable technique to use to reconstruct the historic air temperature. For the third objective, data was collected from Environment and Climate Change Canada for a 72-year period (1950-2021). Weather records from ECCC were used to spatially interpolate using IDW the air temperature within Okanese First Nation throughout the past. With this result, warming across every season and an annual average warming was noted. The results are significant as they help the community quantify environmental change in their community in support of their own observations. The community will be able to use this data to help further their Climate Change Adaptation Strategy with hopes of mitigating or adapting to the impacts from climate change.
Description
Keywords
climate change, weather elements, spatial variability, community-scale, spatial interpolation, inverse distance weighting, ordinary kriging, universal kriging, historic air temperature
Citation
Degree
Master of Science (M.Sc.)
Department
Geography and Planning
Program
Geography