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Violations of Bayesian Thinking: An Exploration of Potential Causes

Date

2023-01-27

Journal Title

Journal ISSN

Volume Title

Publisher

ORCID

0000-0002-3019-7057

Type

Thesis

Degree Level

Masters

Abstract

This research seeks to determine what factors influence participants to violate Bayes Theorem when they are asked to solve seemingly simple reasoning problems, in which applying Bayes Theorem is an appropriate strategy. There are three primary hypotheses underlying this goal. First, the extent to which information reflects prior beliefs will influence behaviour. Second, that the amount of information will affect behaviour. Third, that the Reasoning Strategy of the participant will affect their behaviour. These hypotheses were addressed in the context of the Base Rate Neglect Task, which requires participants to determine the probability of a randomly selected person from one of two groups. For each problem, participants were given a base rate of the number of people belonging to each group as well as a personality description. The personality descriptions and base rates could suggest to the participant either the same answers or different answers. The Base Rate Neglect Task was used, in part, because it allowed for the manipulation of both the extent to which information reflected prior belief and the quantity of information through the personality descriptions. Overall, the findings from both experiments support the hypothesis that variations in diagnosticity contribute to an increase in Bayes violations. Conversely, neither experiment found support for hypothesis that the amount of information would influence the number of Bayes violations. Finally, only experiment two found support for an increase in Bayes violations that were dependent on Reasoning Strategy.

Description

Keywords

Base Rate Neglect, Pseudodiagnosticity, Bayes Theorem, Dual Strategies Model

Citation

Degree

Master of Arts (M.A.)

Department

Psychology

Program

Psychology

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DOI

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