Temperature Varations in Southern Saskatchewan, 1921-1970: Regional Identification of Trends
Date
1980-10
Authors
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Journal ISSN
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Publisher
ORCID
Type
Degree Level
Masters
Abstract
Saskatchewan's vulnerability to variations in the thermal climate
could have serious ramifications for agricultural production, energy
requirements, economic activities, transportation and recreation. Therefore,
a knowledge of temperature change is important. The objectives of
this study were to determine the temporal and spatial changes of the
thermal regime in Saskatchewan for the fifty year period from 1921-1970.
A completeness index was used to measure the reliability of the
available temperature records in terms of record length and the number of
missing observations. The spatial pattern of a correlation analysis and
the completeness index were employed for the evaluation of the network of
observing stations. Methods for temporal estimation were applied and the
results tested. It was found that monthly temperature data could be
estimated satisfactorily but that daily temperature data could not be as
adequately estimated. The improved data base was then used to evaluate
the temporal and spatial variability of the thermal climate of southern
Saskatchewan. The annual, April-October, January, April, July and October
mean monthly, mean maximum monthly and mean minimum monthly temperature
regimes were examined.
An eleven-year binomially weighted running mean was used to
analyze the temporal variability of the thermal regime. As the average
temperature for each station varied widely throughout the study area, the
cumulative sums of the differences between consecutive running means were
computed for each station and graphically plotted. These cumulative
temperature change curves were then examined for evidence of trend. In
order to quantify the established trends, regression lines were calculated
on the cumulative temperature change data at each station. The geographical
distribution of trend was examined by plotting the slope of the
regression line of temperature change at each station.
Several intriguing features were disclosed. Statistically significant
trends were observed for each of the seasonal, April-October and
annual monthly temperature regimes from 1921 to 1970. A predominant
cooling trend was evident for January, April and July mean, maximum and
minimum temperatures from 1921 to 1970. For the annual and April-October
temperature regimes, a cooling trend was evident for the mean and maximum
temperatures only. A major cooling trend in annual minimum temperatures
was ascribed to approximately half of the stations only. In sharp contrast,
a major warming trend dominated the October temperature regimes
and the April-October minimum temperatures. Although the dominant trend,
whether warming or cooling, generally typified the overall direction of
trend for each of the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures, a reversal
of trend was exhibited by some stations.
It was also concluded that although the study area indicated a
general uniformity in the overall trend of temperature, distinct regional
variations in the magnitude of trend were evident. The spatial distribution
of trend values revealed that stations located within a central
corridor aligned northwest to southeast incurred the least rate of
temperature change over the period of record analyzed in comparison to
stations located in the southwest and northeast.
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Citation
Degree
Master of Science (M.Sc.)
Department
Geography and Planning
Program
Geography and Planning