Grains, Trains and Chains: An Agent-Based Model of the Western Canadian Grain Handling and Transportation Supply Chain
Date
2011-10-06
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
ORCID
Type
Degree Level
Masters
Abstract
An open access policy will be explored to determine if it can restrain incumbent railway
behavior and help ensure the continued timely delivery of Saskatchewan wheat to export
markets. An agent-based simulation is developed to evaluate the feasibility of implementing
competitive access applicable to grain movement. The simulation contains: all grain and oilseed
farmers in Saskatchewan, in addition to all primary elevators and inland terminals in the
province; both Class I railways; and the port of Vancouver. The model uses agent-based
simulation to incorporate spatial and temporal effects into a dynamic supply chain, observing
delivery penalty events. A competitive opportunity may be present for a potential rail entrant if
the volume and frequency of delivery penalties are high enough and if the locations are
sufficiently close enough to make entry feasible.
I found in the simulation that there are approximately one million tonnes of wheat that do not
move in a timely manner on an annual basis within the province of Saskatchewan. Delivery
penalty event volumes averaged approximately 85,000 tonnes per month or approximately 30
shipments across Saskatchewan per month. This delayed grain is not randomly distributed across
the elevators in the province, but occurs in dense pockets. I find in the simulation that a potential
rail entrant does not earn a profit. The return on investment for an entrant that transported all
delivery penalty events to export position is -5.5%. If an entrant attempted “hit-and-run” entry
and only transported the largest shipments, their return on investment would increase to -1.7%.
Description
Keywords
open access, rail, elevator, terminal, farmer, grain, agent based modeling, simulation, GIS, transportation, supply chain, wheat, grain handling
Citation
Degree
Master of Science (M.Sc.)
Department
Bioresource Policy, Business and Economics
Program
Agricultural Economics