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QUANTITATIVE RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE NEPAL ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM

Date

1995-03

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Degree Level

Masters

Abstract

The application of quantitative reliability assessment to generating capacity evaluation is well advanced and is a routine activity for many electric power utilities. This is not the case in regards to the evaluation of composite generation and transmission systems where considerable work is in progress involving basic concepts, program development and applications. In many of the less developed countries throughout the world, reliability is incorporated in generation and transmission planning using deterministic techniques, such as a percent reserve criterion or single/multiple contingency evaluation. This has been the case with the Nepal Power System (NPS) where developed expansion plans have been based on non-probabilistic criteria. The difficulty with these criteria is that they do not recognize the stochastic nature of component failures, of customer demands or of system behavior as a whole. This thesis deals with the quantitative reliability assessment of the NPS using probabilistic approach. Assessment at both the generation and composite system levels have been performed. The adequacy of the system expansion plan proposed by the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) for the period 1995-1999 has been assessed. Analytical methods based on probability concepts were utilized in the evaluation. Sensitivity studies were conducted to examine the effects of various stochastic parameters on the calculated indices. The results indicate the reliability implications associated with the proposed expansion plan, and the difficulties of attempting to initiate quantitative reliability assessment in a system such as the NPS. It is demonstrated in this thesis that quantitative reliability evaluation of power systems in developing countries such as Nepal is possible and practical. In order to achieve an optimum balance between required investment and customers needs, reliability awareness should be promoted in developing countries through high level governmental action.

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Degree

Master of Science (M.Sc.)

Department

Electrical Engineering

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