Frazil ice events: Assessing what to expect in the future
Date
2023
Authors
Barrette, Paul
Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich
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IWA Publishing
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Article
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Abstract
This article addresses the question: What is expected from frazil ice activity in rivers, taking into account the changing climate? It begins with an overview of what frazil ice is and what is required for the occurrence of frazil ice events, namely a supercooled water column. Methodologies to anticipate frazil ice events in the short term are based on air temperature and water discharge, underlining the significance of these two parameters for any predictive methods. Longer-term approaches, calibrated against past events (hindcasting), are used to anticipate frazil ice activity into the future, with indicators such as frazil ice risk, water temperature and frazil volume. Any of these approaches could conceivably be applied to frazil-prone river stretches. To assess climate impact, each location should be treated separately. River ice dynamics can lead to the formation of a hanging dam, a frequent outcome of frazil ice generation in the early winter, causing flow restriction. Flood modeling and forecasting capabilities have been developed and implemented for operational use. More frequent mid-winter breakups are expected to extend the occurrence of frazil ice events into the winter months – the prediction of these will require climate model output to adequately capture month-to-month variability.
Description
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits copying and redistribution for non-commercial purposes with no derivatives, provided the original work is properly cited (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Keywords
breakup jam, climate change, flood, freeze-up jam, hanging dam, ice jam
Citation
Barrette, P.D., Lindenschmidt K.E. (2023). Frazil ice events: Assessing what to expect in the future. Hydrology Research Vol 54 No 6, 770. doi: 10.2166/nh.2023.008
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Citation
Barrette, P.D., Lindenschmidt K.E. (2023). Frazil ice events: Assessing what to expect in the future. Hydrology Research Vol 54 No 6, 770. doi: 10.2166/nh.2023.008
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DOI
10.2166/nh.2023.008