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Browsing Centre for Hydrology Reports by Subject "Climate change"
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Item Climate Change in Canadian Floodplain Mapping Assessments(Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, 2020) Rajulapati, Chandra Rupa; Tesemma, Zelalem; Shook, Kevin; Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Pomeroy, John W.In the recent decades, precipitation patterns and corresponding streamflow responses in many cold regions catchments have changed considerably due to warming. Understanding historical changes and predicting future responses are of great importance for planning and management of water resources systems. Regional climate simulations using convention- permitting models are helpful in representing the fine-scale cloud and mesoscale processes, which are critical for understanding the physical mechanisms that cause in convective precipitation. From a hydrological perspective, these fine resolution simulations are helpful in understanding the runoff generation mechanisms, particularly for mountainous watersheds, which have high spatial variation in precipitation due to large differences in elevation over small distances. The sister-study of this report, the Bow River Basin Study (BRBS), used a physically based hydrological land surface scheme along with a water management model, coupled with a high resolution convention- permitting atmospheric regional model (Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF) to understand the streamflow generating mechanisms and identify the changes in streamflow responses of the Bow and Elbow River Basins. The coupled model appears to provide a large improvement in predictability, with minimal calibration of parameters and without bias correction of forcing from the atmospheric model. The model4 was able to provide reliable estimates of streamflows, despite the complex topography in the catchment. Using the WRF Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) scenario, estimated future streamflows simulated were then used to develop projected flow exceedance curves. The uncertainty in the simulations is extremely helpful in the risk assessment for downstream flood inundations. However, the uncertainty in streamflows cannot be assessed as the WRF- PGW dataset was only available for a single realization, because of the high computational cost. The research presented in this report focusses instead on using the highly efficient hydrological model developed and verified in BRBS whilst assessing uncertainty using another regional climate model, the CanRCM4, where many realizations are available for different boundary conditions. Since the CanRCM4 simulations have a relatively low resolution, a novel methodology was developed to adjust regional climate model outputs using the WRF-PGW data. An ensemble of 15 CanRCM4 simulations was used to force the Bow River basin model to determine a measure of the uncertainty in the simulated streamflows, and the projected streamflow exceedance probability curves. These curves are extremely useful for risk assessment for downstream flood inundations. Given the importance of understanding how much extreme precipitation will change in urban areas of the basin, where short duration high intensity events cause flash flooding, frequency analysis of these events was carried out for Calgary and Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves were developed. A ready-to-use empirical form of IDF curve has been proposed from this analysis for the City of Calgary. The results from the WRF-PGW modelling indicated that future high flow, low frequency (exceedances less than 10%) streamflow events will decrease compared to those under the current climate condition by 4, 9 and 1.6 m3/s for the Bow River at Banff and Calgary and Elbow River at Sarcee Bridge respectively. The average of the 15 new CanRCM4-WRF-PGW results supports the above result with some greater decreases in streamflow of 9, 16 and 4 m3/s for Bow River at Banff and Calgary and Elbow River at Sarcee Bridge respectively. However, there were some CanRCM4-WRF-PGW realisations that suggested substantial increases in future low frequency streamflow from those indicated by the average CanRCM4- WRF-PGW-drive MESH model. The below average, high frequency (exceedances greater than 30%) future streamflows will increase modestly in all gauging locations by from 1 to 12.5 m3/s. The results of the extreme precipitation analysis at Calgary indicated an increase in future extreme precipitation events of all duration and return periods. On an average an increase of 1.5 times is noted for short return periods (=2, 5), and an increase of 4 times for long return periods (=500, 1000).Item Diagnosis of Historical and Future Flow Regimes of the Bow River at Calgary Using a Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model and a Physically Based Land Surface Hydrological Model : Final Report(Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, 2020) Tesemma, Zelalem; Shook, Kevin; Princz, Daniel; Razavi, Saman; Davison, Bruce; Li, Yanping; Pietroniro, Alain; Pomeroy, John W.; wheater, howardThis report assesses the impacts of projected climate change on the hydrology, including the flood frequencies, of the Bow and Elbow Rivers above Calgary, Alberta. It reports on investigations of the effects of projected climate change on the runoff mechanisms for the Bow and Elbow River basins, which are important mountain headwaters in Alberta, Canada. The study developed a methodology and applied a case study for incorporating climate change into flood frequency estimates that can be applied to a variety of river basins across Canada.Item Global Water Futures Observatories : a solutions oriented network of world class observation sites and laboratories(2024-03) DeBeer, ChrisGlobal Water Futures Observatories vision, principles of operation, and Priority Research Support Directions 2023-2029.Item Realising Global Water Futures: a Summary of Progress in Delivering Solutions to Water Threats in an Era of Global Change: second edition(Global Institute for Water Security Global Water Futures Program, 2024-05-29) Global Water FuturesIn 2016, with initial funding through the Canada First Research Excellence Fund, the Global Water Futures team set out to produce actionable scientific knowledge on how we can best forecast, prepare for, and manage water futures in the face of dramatically increasing risks. As Global Water Futures moves towards synthesizing the results of its research, this briefing book, updated in 2024, provides description of the progress of GWF's more than 50 projects up to 2023. The book includes links to related peer-reviewed publications, dissertations, and conference papers, a table that categorises the projects by theme, and an index.Item Saskatchewan’s Natural Capital in a Changing Climate : An Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation(Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, 2009) Sauchyn, Dave; Henderson, Norm; Barrow, Elaine; Wheaton, Elaine; Fang, Xing; Johnston, Mark; Pomeroy, John W.; Thorpe, Jeff; Williams, BClimate change impacts in Saskatchewan are already evident and will become increasing significant over time. This report draws on the expertise of top climate change researchers and a large body of previous work to create a state-of-knowledge synthesis of key biophysical impacts and adaptation options specific to Saskatchewan. The focus is Saskatchewan’s ecosystems and water resources and the sectors of our economy, agriculture, and forestry, which are most dependent on these natural resources. The purpose of this report is to 1) document the expected impacts of climate change on Saskatchewan’s natural resources and dependent industries, and 2) outline options for adaptation of resource management practices, policies and infrastructure to minimize the risks associated with the impacts of climate change and to take advantage of opportunities provided by a warming climate.