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      • HARVEST
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      Implementation of an Agent-Based Model for Devil Facial Tumor Disease in Tasmanian Devils, and Evaluation of Interventions

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      LAMP-THESIS-2022.pdf (5.949Mb)
      Date
      2021-11-02
      Author
      Lamp, Lea
      ORCID
      0000-0002-5250-8127
      Type
      Thesis
      Degree Level
      Masters
      Metadata
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      Abstract
      This thesis presents a geographical agent-based model to investigate different interventions that may be used to combat the spread of devil facial tumour disease (DFTD). DFTD is a clonally transmissible cancer that spreads as an allograft through bite wounds between Tasmanian devils [15]. The population of Tasmanian devils has been reduced by up to 90% since the first documented case of DFTD in 1996, and continued spread of DFTD threatens the survival of the species. The agent-based model presented here uses geographic data to simulate the devil maturation and mating, both spread and progress of DFTD, but also external pressures such as road kill, rodenticide, dog attacks, and generally lower survival in urban settings. Capturing these external pressures addresses a critical gap in current research which can highlight the importance of necessary interventions to preserve the species. Multiple interventions were investigated, including translocation of devils from a disease-free external population, translocation of devils from within Tasmania, use of an injection vaccine, and use of an oral bait vaccine. The injection vaccine increased the devil days lived (DDL) from the baseline of 6.81x10^8 to 7.76x10^8 and decreased the mean daily incidence of DFTD from the baseline of 52.43 to 39.27. Similarly, the oral bait vaccine intervention increased the DDL from 6.81x10^8 to 8.34x10^8, and decreased the mean daily incidence rate from 52.43 to 24.91, using the most aggressive distribution campaign. This oral bait vaccine campaign resulted in eradication of DFTD in the model. As the injection vaccine assumes an intensive trapping effort across the island, which can be very resource intensive, the more promising intervention is the oral bait vaccine due to its significantly lower resource investment and potential for disease eradication.
      Degree
      Master of Science (M.Sc.)
      Department
      Computer Science
      Program
      Computer Science
      Supervisor
      Osgood, Nathaniel D
      Committee
      McQuillan, Ian; Klarkowski, Madison; McLeod, Lianne
      Copyright Date
      June 2022
      URI
      https://hdl.handle.net/10388/13666
      Subject
      Tasmanian Devil
      devil facial tumor disease
      DFTD
      Oral bait vaccine
      Agent-based model, infectious disease model
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