Generating system reliability optimization
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Reliability optimization can be applied in both conventional and non-conventional generating system planning. This thesis is concerned with generation adequacy optimization, with emphases on applications to wind energy penetration planning and interruptible load utilization. New models, indices and techniques for generation adequacy optimization including wind turbines and interruptible load utilization have been developed in this research work. A sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique for wind power modeling and reliability assessment of a generating system was developed in the research associated with optimum wind energy penetration planning. An auto-regressive and moving average (ARMA) time series model is used to simulate the hourly wind speeds. Two new risk-based capacity benefit indicators designated as the Load Carrying Capability Benefit Ratio (LCCBR) and the Equivalent Capacity Ratio (ECR) are introduced. These two indices are used to indicate capacity benefit and credit associated with a windenergy conversion system. A bisection technique to assess them was further developed. The problem of determining the optimum site-matching windturbine parameters was studied with the LCCBR and ECR as the optimization objective functions. Sensitivity studies were conducted to show the effect of wind energy penetration level on generation capacity benefit. A procedure for optimum penetration planning was formed, which extends the methods developed for conventional generation adequacy optimization. A basic framework and techniques to conduct interruptible load analysis using sequential Monte Carlo simulation were created in the research associated with interruptible load utilization. A new index designated as the Avoidable Additional Generating Capacity (AAGC) is introduced. Bisection search techniques were developed to effectively determine the Incremental Load Carrying Capability (ILCC) and AAGC. Case studies on suitable contractual options for interruptible load customers under given conditions are also presented in this thesis. The results show that selecting a suitable set of interruptible load contractual conditions, in which various risk conditions are well matched, will achieve enhanced interruptible load carrying capability or capacity benefits. The series of case studies described in this thesis indicate that the proposed concepts, framework, models and quantitative techniques can be applied in practical engineering situations to provide a scientific basis for generating system planning.
DegreeDoctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)
Copyright DateSeptember 2000