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Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology

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dc.contributor.authorDeBeer, Chris
dc.contributor.authorwheater, howard
dc.contributor.authorPomeroy, John
dc.contributor.authorBarr, Alan
dc.contributor.authorBaltzer, Jennifer
dc.contributor.authorJohnstone, Jill
dc.contributor.authorTuretsky, Merritt
dc.contributor.authorStewart, Ronald
dc.contributor.authorHayashi, Masaki
dc.contributor.authorvan der Kamp, Garth
dc.contributor.authorMarshall, Shawn
dc.contributor.authorCampbell, Elizabeth
dc.contributor.authorMarsh, Philip
dc.contributor.authorCarey, Sean
dc.contributor.authorQuinton, William L.
dc.contributor.authorLi, Yanping
dc.contributor.authorRazavi, Saman
dc.contributor.authorBerg, Aaron
dc.contributor.authorMcdonnell, Jeffrey
dc.contributor.authorSpence, Christopher
dc.contributor.authorHelgason, Warren D.
dc.contributor.authorIreson, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorBlack, T. Black
dc.contributor.authorElshamy, Mohamed
dc.contributor.authorYassin, Dr. Fuad
dc.contributor.authorDavison, Bruce
dc.contributor.authorHoward, Allan
dc.contributor.authorThériault, Julie M.
dc.contributor.authorShook, Kevin
dc.contributor.authorDemuth, Michael N.
dc.contributor.authorPietroniro, Alain
dc.date.accessioned2023-05-15T04:42:54Z
dc.date.available2023-05-15T04:42:54Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractThe interior of western Canada, like many similar cold mid- to high-latitude regions worldwide, is undergoing extensive and rapid climate and environmental change, which may accelerate in the coming decades. Understanding and predicting changes in coupled climate–land– hydrological systems are crucial to society yet limited by lack of understanding of changes in cold-region process responses and interactions, along with their representation in most current-generation land-surface and hydrological models. It is essential to consider the underlying processes and base predictive models on the proper physics, especially under conditions of non-stationarity where the past is no longer a reliable guide to the future and system trajectories can be unexpected. These challenges were forefront in the recently completed Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN), which assembled and focused a wide range of multi-disciplinary expertise to improve the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of change over the cold interior of western Canada. CCRN advanced knowledge of fundamental cold-region ecological and hydrological processes through observation and experimentation across a network of highly instrumented research basins and other sites. Significant efforts were made to improve the functionality and process representation, based on this improved understanding, within the fine-scale Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM) platform and the large-scale Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire (MEC) – Surface and Hydrology (MESH) model. These models were, and continue to be, applied under past and projected future climates and under current and expected future land and vegetation cover configurations to diagnose historical change and predict possible future hydrological responses. This second of two articles synthesizes the nature and understanding of cold-region processes and Earth system responses to future climate, as advanced by CCRN. These include changing precipitation and moisture feedbacks to the atmosphere; altered snow regimes, changing balance of snowfall and rainfall, and glacier loss; vegetation responses to climate and the loss of ecosystem resilience to wildfire and disturbance; thawing permafrost and its influence on landscapes and hydrology; groundwater storage and cycling and its connections to surface water; and stream and river discharge as influenced by the various drivers of hydrological change. Collective insights, expert elicitation, and model application are used to provide a synthesis of this change over the CCRN region for the late 21st century.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipCCRN from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) through their Climate Change and Atmospheric Research (CCAR) programen_US
dc.description.versionPeer Revieweden_US
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/hess-25-1849-2021
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10388/14696
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherCopernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Unionen_US
dc.rightsAttribution 2.5 Canada*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ca/*
dc.subjectChanging Cold Regions Network (CCRN)en_US
dc.subjectcryosphereen_US
dc.subjectvegetationen_US
dc.subjecthydrologyen_US
dc.subjectCold Regions Hydrological Modelling (CRHM)en_US
dc.subjectcold-region processesen_US
dc.subjecthydrological changeen_US
dc.titleSummary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrologyen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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