APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY TECHNIQUES IN THE EVALUATION OF GENERATING CAPACITY RELIABILITY IN SINGLE AND IN TWO INTERCONNECTED SYSTEMS
Date
1967-01
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Degree Level
Masters
Abstract
The adequacy of installed or proposed generating capacity in a power system is evaluated using probability methods. Uncertainty in load forecasting and the availability of interconnections are important factors which affect the reliability of generating facilities. A digital computer program is developed for the reliability evaluation of single and two interconnected systems using the loss-of-load probability method. The Saskatchewan Power Corporation and the Manitoba Hydro systems are studied as single and interconnected systems for the period 1966 to 1971. Variations in risk level due to the effects of uncertainty in load forecasting and variations in tie capacity are presented.
A statistical analysis of the forced outage data from 1959 to 1965 of the generating units located at the Winnipeg River plants in Manitoba was performed. The results are utilized in comparing risk levels obtained using a distributed representation of the forced outage probability with those obtained by the normal practice of using cumulative probability of forced outage.
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Degree
Master of Science (M.Sc.)
Department
Electrical Engineering